Wednesday, 23 January 2008
Impact of the 2006 Augustine volcano eruption on local weather
Exhibit Hall B (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Evaluations of weather situations occurring during volcanic eruptions may aid in understanding the effects of a small-scale eruption on local weather. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is run for a twenty-day period during the January 2006 Augustine Volcano eruption (South Central Alaska). Simulations are compared with station data using statistical analysis to evaluate the model performance. Further simulations consider volcanic influences, which include release of 1) heat, 2) moisture, 3) aerosols, and 4) the radiation change (due to plume cover). Various combinations of these four volcanic influences are also included. The volcano simulations are compared to the evaluation (no volcano) simulation using a variety of statistical analysis methods. The complexity of the interaction between the volcano and the atmosphere will be discussed.
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