88th Annual Meeting (20-24 January 2008)

Wednesday, 23 January 2008: 4:45 PM
Coupled air-ocean prediction supporting operational planning during a major fleet exercise
214 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Steven W. Payne, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command, Stennis Space Center, MS; and D. W. Titley and E. Gough
The US Navy is testing coupled air-ocean prediction in direct support of Fleet operations through system development and demonstration for Naval exercises. The coupled system includes high-resolution ocean and atmospheric models, loosely coupled and embedded within global prediction systems including sophisticated data assimilation. Real-time products are used to drive Naval system performance predictions (both deterministic and probabilistic) that influence operational Fleet decisions made before and during the exercise. This paper will describe the coupled prediction system as applied during a recent Fleet exercise, including the use of targeted observing systems and an operational reach-back approach to put on-scene personnel in direct contact with system experts at the central high-performance computing site. An assessment of the utility of the predictions in influencing operational decisions will be discussed.

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