In this presentation, we relate the GOES total column ozone (TCO) derived product to an unsolved research problem in tropospheric weather: the forecasting of non-convective windstorms associated with mid-latitude cyclones.

Stratospheric intrusions associated with intense cyclones have long been identified in upper-tropospheric analyses, but their connections to near-surface conditions are yet to be fully understood. Previous research (Iacopelli and Knox 2001) on the “Witch of November” cyclone on 10 November 1998 revealed that the most intense winds (60-81 kts) developed in association with a significant tropopause fold whose prominent ozone signature was captured by the GOES Sounder Ozone imagery. Close inspection of GOES water vapor imagery revealed a mesoscale “hook” of dry air, a lobe of the intrusion, that was dynamically wrapped around the cyclone's mid- to upper-tropospheric circulation. This hook was closely correlated in both space and time with surface storm reports from the National Weather Service, suggesting that in at least some cases this feature could be used for pinpoint nowcasting purposes. Improvements in the GOES TCO (Li et al. 2007), including single-field-of-view (SFOV) resolution, now allow us to examine these intrusions in finer detail in both space and time.

We will focus on the 12-13 November 2003 Great Lakes mid-latitude cyclone. For more than 18 hours, non-convective high winds (up to 75 kt) associated with the cyclone caused eight deaths, 23 injuries and $36 million in damage from Iowa to Pennsylvania, as well as a major seiche on Lake Erie. We will attempt to relate mesoscale features in the GOES SFOV TCO to the dynamic dry slot and high surface winds during four different stages of the windstorm: in Iowa and southern Wisconsin, southeast Lower Michigan and Lake Erie, Pennsylvania, and northern Lower Michigan respectively.

References

Iacopelli, A.J., and J.A. Knox, 2001: Mesoscale dynamics of the record-breaking 10 November 1998 mid-latitude cyclone: A satellite-based case study. Natl. Wea. Dig., 25 (1,2), 33-42.

Li, Jinlong, Jun Li, C. C. Schmidt, J. P. Nelson, and T. J. Schmit, 2007: High temporal resolution GOES sounder single field of view ozone improvements. Geophys. Res. Letts., 34, L01804, doi:10.1029/2006GL028172.