88th Annual Meeting (20-24 January 2008)

Tuesday, 22 January 2008: 2:00 PM
Predicting solar activity: today, tomorrow, next year
R02-R03 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
W. Dean Pesnell, NASA, Greenbelt, Maryland
Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to space weather effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less fuel can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling

radiation storms. Predicting those events that will affect our assets in space includes a solar prediction and how the radiation will propagate through the solar system. I will talk our need for solar activity predictions and anticipate how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

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