Extended Abstract (244K)J16.3A
Validation of the Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (e-TRaP) for land-falling tropical cyclones
Elizabeth E. Ebert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and A. E. Salemi, M. Turk, M. Spampata, and S. J. Kusselson
Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) have been generated operationally by NOAA/NESDIS since the mid-1980s. Today the process has been advanced by combining all single pass TRaPs generated within 3 hours of 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z to form a poor-man's ensemble dubbed e-TRaP. The ensemble members are derived from satellite-based observation of instantaneous passive microwave rain rates from NOAA, DMSP and NASA projected over time using the official track forecasts of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC). TRaPs from more accurate sensors, based on earlier validation studies, and TRaPs from more recent scans get more weight. Compared to single-scan TRaP, the e-TRaP forecasts provide better placement and intensity of the rain maximum, greater accuracy and realism with spatial forecasts and increased uncertainty information via probabilities of exceeding critical amounts. Results of a validation study using Stage IV data as ground truth will be presented.
Joint Session 16, Operational Products and the Transition from Research to Operations
Wednesday, 14 January 2009, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Room 224AB
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