JP8.3
Estimating hurricane strength using multiple integrated satellite data sources
Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. C. Herndon, T. L. Olander, and A. Wimmers
The SATellite CONsensus (SatCon) product developed at CIMSS blends tropical cyclone intensity estimates derived from multiple satellite-based objective algorithms to produce an ensemble estimate of intensity for current tropical cyclones worldwide. The SatCon algorithm uses individual ADT, CIMSS AMSU, and CIRA AMSU intensity estimates
utilizing a statistically-derived weighting scheme which maximizes/minimizes the strength/weaknesses of each technique to produce a consensus estimate of the current tropical cyclone intensity. A statistical analysis of each of the 3 member algorithms is used to determine the individual member performance in a variety of TC structures. Each algorithm has situational strengths and weaknesses that are a function of the algorithm limitations, scanning geometry, instrument resolution
or a combination of these factors.
The goal of SATCON is to produce an estimate of TC intensity that is superior to both the individual members and a simple average of the members. 258 cases of
coincident estimates for all 3 algorithms from 1999-2006 were used to develop SATCON. Coincident estimates of storm intensity from in-situ aircraft data are used to validate
the approach. Each algorithm member is weighted based on TC structure or instrument resolution characteristics. SATCON was then tested on an independent set of TC cases in 2007. The results of this test revealed the SATCON performance was better than the individual members, and better than a simple average of the members.
Joint Poster Session 8, Operational Products and Transition from Research to Operations
Wednesday, 14 January 2009, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Hall 5
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