Spatial and temporal trends in Arctic temperature climate data records
Sheldon D. Drobot, NCAR, Boulder, CO
The generation of climate data records (CDRs) is a critical step in providing the necessary information for scientists, decision-makers, and stakeholders to make adaptive choices that could improve the nation's resiliency to environmental change and variability, maintain our economic vitality, and improve the safety and comfort of U.S. citizens. These CDRs are particularly needed for the Arctic, where existing evidence suggests climate changes are occurring more rapidly than in most other regions of Earth.
In this presentation, I use six temperature data sets over Arctic Ocean areas to examine the following research questions:
- Are there significant differences in Arctic temperatures among the data sets? If so, which data sets are statistically different and over what areas?
- Are there significant differences in the trend of Arctic temperatures among the data sets? If so, which data sets are statistically different and over what areas?
- Do variations in temperatures among the data sets lead to significantly different modeled ice thickness distributions?
Discussion of the results will show that there are noticeable differences among all of the datasets, and no two datasets are statistically indistinguishable for all months. Spatially, the largest differences in temperature are centered on areas of the marginal ice zone. For trend analyses, some datasets show warming and some show cooling in the eastern Arctic, and the differences in the data sets lead to significant differences in modeled ice thickness.
Session 8B, Observed changes in climate
Wednesday, 14 January 2009, 8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Room 129B
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