Recorded presentation3.3
(Invited Speaker) Seamless Prediction of Weather and Climate from Days to Decades
J. Shukla, George Mason Univ./COLA, Beltsville, MD
Seamless prediction of weather and climate is a major theme of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) strategic framework called: Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES). The main aim of COPES is to facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical application of direct relevance, benefit and value to society.
There is no scientific basis to draw artificial boundaries between meso-scale prediction, synoptic scale prediction, seasonal prediction, ENSO prediction, decadal prediction and climate change. However, practical considerations of computing and of model complexity may require different prediction systems for different time scales. The simulation and prediction of meso-scale systems, synoptic scale disturbances, intra-seasonal, seasonal and inter-annual variations are intimately linked, and therefore, it is suggested that future research on prediction of weather and climate be carried out in a unified framework. For reliable prediction of regional climate change it is essential that climate models accurately simulate the modes of natural variability from diurnal to seasonal and decadal. Utilization of the insights gained from operational weather and seasonal prediction, and of the synergy between the weather and climate prediction communities is essential for the development of next-generation seamless prediction systems.
A brief summary of the discussions at and conclusions of the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction will also be presented.
Session 3, Anthony Hollingsworth Symposium—III
Thursday, 15 January 2009, 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Room 131C
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