Extended Abstract (336K)P6.4
Avoiding Disaster across Western Colorado: The 2007-08 Winter Season Near-Record Snowfall and impact on the Spring Runoff
Jeffery D. Colton, NOAA/NWS, Grand Junction, CO; and J. Ramey, M. P. Meyers, B. A. Lawrence, and A. Strautins
The 2007 and 2008 winter season brought heavy snow to much of western Colorado. Early season predictions of a moderate La Niña event brought expectations of a slightly below average snowpack for portions of southwest Colorado, while above average snowpack was expected across northwest Colorado. Due to the progressive nature of the seasons storm track over the region, many locations across western Colorado saw above average snowfall. This pattern continued well into the spring and early summer months. With most river basins reporting snow water equivalent measurements over 150 to 200 percent of normal at various points throughout the season, forecasters were extremely concerned with the runoff season. This concerned was further heightened by the fact that heavy snowpack was also observed between 7500 and 10,000 feet MSL, which tends to be quite unusual as we enter the runoff season.
As a result, numerous efforts were brought about by the staff of WFO Grand Junction to educate and cooperate with local media and Emergency Management teams across the western slope. This outreach offered immediate results with precautions being taken up to 4 months prior to the runoff season by local Emergency Managers. The forecasters and emergency management teams were prepared for a “worst case” scenario, but instead saw a systematic release of the mid elevation snowpack, followed by a steady release of the high mountain snowpack as the progressive and cool spring proceeded. As a result of the early interactions with local officials and the steps taken to prepare for catastrophic runoff, lives and property were saved.
The unique conditions that brought record snowfall to portions of western Colorado, and the manageable runoff from that record snowfall will be examined. The communications with local Emergency Managers and media that preceded what could have been a record runoff season will also be discussed.
Poster Session 6, New Approaches to Hydrologic Prediction and Forecast Communication
Thursday, 15 January 2009, 9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Hall 5
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