Recorded presentationJ15.2
Toward an end-to-end satellite-based convection nowcasting system
Kristopher M. Bedka, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. F. Feltz, J. Sieglaff, R. Rabin, M. J. Pavolonis, and J. C. Brunner
An extensive amount of research has been conducted over the last several years toward the development of objective satellite-based products that can be used for convective storm diagnosis and nowcasting. These products include: 1) atmospheric instability parameter retrievals, 2) convective initiation nowcast, 3) cloud-top microphysical typing/properties, 4) overshooting top detection, 5) anvil temperature couplets related to the “enhanced-V” signature, and 6) anvil horizontal expansion rate. These individual products have shown value in nowcasting convection-induced weather hazards such as high winds, hail, tornadoes, and aviation turbulence, but they have yet to be combined into unified framework to aid in the decision making process.
The goal of this effort is to merge output from the algorithms mentioned above, in addition to validation datasets such as WSR-88D reflectivity, NLDN, and objective aviation turbulence observations, into a single end-to-end convection nowcasting and visualization system (i.e. McIDAS-V). Atmospheric stability can define where convective activity is possible, which can help limit false alarms in the convective initiation nowcast product. As the storms reach full maturity, storm severity and aviation turbulence potential can be estimated through detection of overshooting top activity, large anvil temperature couplets, and rapid horizontal anvil expansion. Nowcasts of lightning initiation may also be possible through combination of cloud-top brightness temperature and microphysical characteristics. Storm decay can be identified through a decrease in the areal coverage of cold anvil brightness temperatures. This presentation will describe the various components of this nowcast framework and future plans for product integration and visualization.
Joint Session 15, Advances in Natural Hazards Monitoring
Wednesday, 14 January 2009, 1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Room 224AB
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