21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change


Seasonal prediction with CCSM3.0: general skill assessment and impact of land surface initialization

James L. Kinter III, COLA, Calverton, MD; and D. Paolino, D. M. Straus, B. P. Kirtman, and D. Min

Seasonal re-forecast ensembles with the CCSM3.0 coupled climate model have been made using observed ocean, atmosphere and land initial states for 1 January for 20 years. For each year, a 10-member ensemble was integrated for one calendar year. This paper will review the characteristics of seasonal prediction skill, both deterministic and probabilistic, revealed in this set of retrospective forecasts. The performance of the model in reproducing tropical climate variability, the tropical hydrologic cycle, and high latitude land surface climate variability will be examined in detail. A comparison of parallel forecasts made with only the ocean state initialized from observations will be made.

Poster Session 3, Global dynamics and prediction - posters
Tuesday, 13 January 2009, 9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Hall 5

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