21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change


Large-scale environmental characteristics of severe weather environments in the NARCCAP simulations of current and future climate

James Correia Jr., PNNL, Richland, WA ; and R. Leung

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) seeks to develop regional climate change scenarios for North America and investigate uncertainties in climate change projections. In order to ascertain such uncertainties, model climatology needs to be derived and evaluated for similarity to the current climate. The NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis 2 (R2) data have been used to drive two regional climate simulations using two different cumulus convection schemes. The simulations are being analyzed in terms of the larger scale dynamics including storm tracks and mesoscale processes that have important implications for severe weather. More specifically, we are comparing the simulated low-level moisture, CAPE, and deep layer vertical wind shear with reanalysis or observed data to assess systematic biases that relate directly to severe weather environments. This study will highlight model strengths and weaknesses in predicting the overall severe weather climate and precipitation forcing mechanisms of the central US. Similar analyses will be performed to compare two regional climate simulations driven by the global climate simulations (CCSM3) of the current and future conditions to examine potential changes in severe weather near the mid-century.

Poster Session 7, Regional climate modeling
Thursday, 15 January 2009, 9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Hall 5

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