In this study we evaluate how accurately members of the American public perceive changes in average temperatures near their residences, and we model the determinants of those perceptions. We hypothesize that perceived changes will be influenced by the actual deviations from long-term averages. But other influences – such as ideological dispositions, overall concern about and attentiveness to environmental issues – may mater as well. We model the relative weight of these influences, and discuss the implications for public support for policies to address climate change.