the HadCM3 OAGCM is associated with variability in the
South-East Pacific (SEP) area which is independent of ENSO
and which is at least partly forced by extratropical
variability in the Southern Hemisphere.
Equatorward propagation of SST anomalies preceding
equatorial warming in the east Pacific is seen in HadCM3 as
well as in observational datasets and in several AR4 models.
In the SEP area, SST tendencies are controlled mainly by surface latent heat fluxes. Via the coupling with the
low-level winds, they propagate equatorward in a
wind-evaporation-SST (WES) mode.
However, this mode is damped and requires external forcing.
This appears to be provided by surface SW cloud forcing, in
turn linked with extratropical circulation anomalies in the
Southern Ocean storm-track.
Anomalies in oceanic advection and coastal upwelling only
account for a small fraction of anomalous SST tendencies in
the SEP.
The simulated climate in this area is affected by large
errors such as lack in stratocumulus clouds, reduced
southerly wind stress, and warm SSTs.
Investigation of the possible sources of such errors
indicates that the near-field orographic forcing of the
meridional wind component is the dominant factor for the
mean SST error in this model.
The model's variability in the SEP does not appear to depend
strongly on its mean bias.
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