The Oceanic Convection Diagnosis and Nowcasting system uses geostationary satellite-based methodologies to identify deep convection over oceanic regions and produces short-term nowcasts of its future location. Satellite-derived environmental parameters from polar-orbiting satellites in low earth orbit and a global numerical weather prediction model identify favorable conditions for oceanic storm initiation and continuance.

Within the system, convection is identified through a fuzzy-logic combination of three satellite-based algorithms. As a first step, identified convection was extrapolated using an object-tracking methodology. Investigation into using Random Forest methodology for producing nowcasts is underway and preliminary results will be presented. Independent validation is accomplished with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar and Lightning Imaging System. Validation methodology will be described and results presented.

The diagnosis and nowcasting products are geared toward oceanic pilots and dispatchers of transoceanic routes where aircraft fly at enroute altitudes. Satellite remote sensing provides the best means to monitor convective attributes near the desired temporal and spatial resolution. These products are geared toward fulfillment of the Federal Aviation Administration's Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) goal of a global convection product.