Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a form of large-scale, warm core low pressure system over tropical oceans that can grow into very intense storms with devastating impacts. The question of whether and to what extent global warming may be impacting TC activity is of outstanding interest for decision makers, yet little consensus has been reached so far.

The determination of a possible climate change signal in TC data is difficult because of pronounced interannual variations and the very limited time span of reliable TC data. Projections of future TC activity are hindered by computational limitations, the lack of knowledge of regional climate change impacts, possible changes in large scale patterns on which TC activity depends, and uncertainties about how TCs might respond to climatic changes. Another important question for the Atlantic basin in particular concerns the existence and extent of systematic natural multidecadal oscillations in intense hurricane activity.

This study will present

1) current insight on possible global warming impacts on TC activity, based on a recent extensive review of the literature and face-to-face interviews with leading members of the TC research community,

2) new results on natural variations in Atlantic hurricane activity over the past 250 years.