89th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting

Sunday, 11 January 2009
Semi-Empirical Projections of Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
Phoenix Convention Center
Thomas A. Sabbatelli, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and M. E. Mann, J. L. Evans, and S. K. Miller
Using a previously validated statistical model relating Atlantic annual tropical cyclone (TC) counts to climate state variables, we investigate the impact of projected future changes in climate on Atlantic TC activity. In contrast to some recent studies, our results suggest, albeit with a wide uncertainty range, the possibility that anthropogenic climate change could lead to a substantial increase in annual TC counts.

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