Eighth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology


Seeking a physics-based algorithm for lightning prediction


Brian Potter, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and R. Solomon

Current methods for predicting lightning probabilities are heavily statistical. We have explored the possibility of using more physical models to produce indices of lightning probability, based on properties readily available from most numerical atmospheric models. The properties include hydrometeor concentrations, vertical temperature structure, resolved vertical velocities and approximations to unresolved vertical velocities. We will present the results of these efforts.

Poster Session 1, Formal Poster Reviewing with Icebreaker Reception
Tuesday, 13 October 2009, 5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Big Sky Ballroom

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