Progress made towards including wildfires in real-time cloud resolving forecasts at NOAA/ESRL and examining its impact upon weather and air quality

Starting in August 2008 an interactive-chemistry version of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is being run every six hours and produces a 12 hour forecast. This domain has a 3-km horizontal grid spacing and is located over approximately the western one-third of the US. The HRRR obtains its initial atmospheric and lateral boundary conditions from the radar-enhanced grids from the 13-km RUC model. The anthropogenic and biogenic emissions are derived from the National Emissions Inventory provided by the US EPA in 2005. In addition, the HRRR uses real-time fire information obtained from GOES satellites (WF-ABBA and MODIS) as well as a vertical transport based upon a plume rise calculation to provide wild fire effects to the air quality guidance. All of this data is then integrated in time using a relatively simple chemical and aerosol model that is inline with the WRF meteorological model. That is, the same equations are used to transport the meteorological fields as well as the fire emitted pollutants (smoke). This methodology permits the model to consider the dynamic and thermodynamics of wildfires as well as the effects of pollutants upon the atmospheric radiation which subsequently feedback into the meteorology (e.g., radiative direct and indirect effects, visibility).

An overview of the current status of this numerical forecasting system used at NOAA/ESRL and ongoing development will be discussed. In addition some results from real-time HRRR simulations will be presented and the methodology by which the data is disseminated to the public will be discussed.