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Results from the NAIRAS model for the Halloween Storms
Michael Wiltberger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. J. Mertens, B. Kress, and S. C. Solomon
In this presentation we discuss the results from the Nowcast of Atmospheric
Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model during the Halloween 2003
superstorm. NAIRAS's goal is to provide global, real-time, data driven
predictions of ionizing radiation at commercial airline altitudes for assessing
the biologically harmful radiation exposure. The modeling system combines
numerical and empirical models of the geospace environment with particle tracing
technologies to predict the regions of energic particle access across the
global. This information is then passed to a radiation transport simulation to
compute the dose at atmospheric altitudes. We have used the observations of the
solar energic particle fluxes and solar wind conditions to drive the model
during the Halloween 2003 superstorm and find significant increases in exposure
risk at high-latitude flights especially for flights during the storm that
approached ionospheric foot points of the magnetospheric open-closed field line
boundary.
Poster Session , Space Weather Posters
Monday, 18 January 2010, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM
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