Joint Session 10
	Verification of Probabilistic Forecasts (Joint between the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, and the 8th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science)
	Cochairs: Bjarne Hansen, EC, Dorval, QC Canada; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Valliappa Lakshmanan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
	11:00 AM	J10.1A	A comparison between raw ensemble output, Bayesian model averaging and logistic regression using ECMWF ensemble precipitation reforecasts   Maurice J. Schmeits, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; and C. J. Kok
		J10.1	The three dimensions of prediction and service   Philip Chadwick, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada
	11:15 AM	J10.2	Determining Optimal Thresholds for Inland Locations of Tropical Cyclone Incremental Wind Speed Probabilities to Support the Provision of Expressions of Uncertainty within Text Forecast Products   Pablo Santos, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria and D. W. Sharp
	11:30 AM	J10.3	Verification of aviation turbulence detection, nowcast, and forecast products   John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Pocernich, R. D. Sharman, and J. Abernethy
	11:45 AM	J10.4	Evaluation of a probabilistic convective nowcast for CoSPA   D. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Williams, S. Dettling, H. Cai, and M. Steiner
	12:00 PM	J10.5	Choosing a scoring rule for verification of forecast probability distributions: Continuous ranked probability score or ignorance score?   Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA

Thursday, 21 January 2010: 11:00 AM-12:15 PM, B305

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

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