Satellite Derived Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP):2008 and 2009 Results

The National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) produces satellite derived products for the observation and analysis of many hazards. Among the product areas, tropical cyclone position, intensity and forecast rainfall amounts are produced. To improve the analysis and forecast of rainfall from tropical cyclones, ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) became operational on July 1, 2009. Evolving from Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP), the eTRaP is a satellite derived product that uses rain rate products from various microwave sensors aboard polar-orbiting satellites. eTRaP automatically processes all single pass TRaPs generated up to 3 hours of 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z to form a simple ensemble. Deterministic and probabilistic eTRaP products are first generated globally when a Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) provides a name or number for a storm and continues until classifications are ended. The eTRaPs can be viewed on the web at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html and are available to users in three basic formats: GIF, McIDAS Area files, and text.

This presentation will review the eTRaP method and validation results and examples will be shown for United States landfalling tropical cyclones in 2008 and 2009. Future improvements for the next decade, including use of additional satellites from the NPOESS, GPM and GOES-R era will also be discussed..