Performance of the NOAA FIM global ensemble prediction system for hurricanes during the 2009 season

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Wednesday, 20 January 2010: 8:45 AM
B215 (GWCC)
Tom Hamill, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and S. Benjamin

The NOAA FIM model is a finite-volume model on an icosahedral grid with a hybrid isentropic/sigma vertical coordinate. Here we examine the performance of high-resolution ensemble forecasts for 0-7 days lead from the FIM model during the 2009 hurricane season. This version of FIM will be initialized with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The focus of the talk will be on the performance of the FIM model relative to operational models such as the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System and the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. The operating hypothesis going into the 2009 hurricane season is that the higher resolution of the FIM and the improved initial conditions near the hurricane vortex as a result of the EnKF data assimilation will make the FIM model one of the most skillful global models for hurricane track and intensity forecasts. Time permitting, the FIM will be compared to other global ensemble forecasts using the THORPEX TIGGE data set.