Analysis of characteristic patterns in CMIP3 precipitation and temperature projections over the Greater Horn of Africa

Analysis of 11 CMIP3 (IPPC, AR4) models indicate that the equatorial eastern Africa region (including the entire Greater Horn of Africa (GHA)) have been experiencing significant increase in temperature beginning in the early 1980's. Both observations (CRU) and CMIP3 model show that the warming tends to be even more pronounced during the transition (no rain) between the predominantly bimodal rainfall regimes (i.e MAM and OND). Therefore, we focus our investigation of potential impacts of climate variability and change (in precipitation and temperature) on the GHA water resources not only during the traditional rainfall seasons, but more so during the transition periods. These transition (dry) periods could be particularly important for developing water resources management strategies aimed at climate change adaptation in the water and agricultural sector.

In addition, to our analysis of the CMIP3 model data we are downscaling two of the IPCC-AR4 GCM projections using multiple RCMs over the GHA within the framework of the Horn of Africa Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (AFRMIP).