Some economic and societal implications of a biofuel based economy: Results from CIM-EARTH a new integrated assessment model

There is a gathering consensus on the human influence on climate change and global warming. There is a wide-ranging debate on the impacts of climate changes and of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. New strategies for future energy needs that are friendly to the environment, non-fossil fuel based and renewable are part of the discussion in developing mitigation strategies. Bioenergy is generating tremendous interest as an alternative energy source that is both environmentally friendly and economically competitive. The US consumed 142 billion gallons of gasoline in 2008. A boost in domestic biofuel use to 36 billion gallons annually, mandated by the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA 2007), equates to a production rate four times the current ~9.5 billion gallons of annual production. At least half of the biofuel production is expected to be from corn ethanol. To keep this increase in perspective, ethanol has ~66% of the energy content of gasoline: 26.7 GJ/t vs. 43.5 GJ/t for gasoline. This projected significant increase in ethanol and other biofuels production equates to approximately one quarter of the current gasoline demand. Generating this renewable source of energy at these industrial scales from current primarily agricultural sources, such as corn sugarcane and agricultural residues would put tremendous strain on land and water resources. We have developed a computational model to simulate the economics and lifecycle of biofuel production and use. The initial model results will be used to describe the pros and cons of the biofuels economy on the environment and economics. Issues such as the competition between food and fuel from increasing demand for biofuels, consequences of rapid and large-scale changes in landuse to generate biofuels and the differences between corn ethanol and cellulosic ethanol in terms of carbon and net energy savings will be presented.