Lightning threat nowcasting with polarimetric weather radar

Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning causes nearly a billion dollars of property damage and approximately 90 fatalities per year in the United States, second only to flooding. Yet the lightning warning facilities as implemented provide limited warning time at best and cannot provide any warning for a first strike. Reduction of fatalities and injuries require accurate and timely warnings of the cloud-to-ground lightning threat. With its hydrometeor classification capability, a polarimetric radar can provide an estimate of the cloud-to-ground lightning threat assuming a simple storm electrification model. This paper describes the technique for nowcasting cloud-to-ground lightning threat using polarimetric weather radar.