Development of a statistical hail prediction product for the GOES-R proving ground

As the launch date of GOES-R grows nearer, efforts have begun to develop and test new algorithms and products in the presence of the forecasters who will actually be putting them into operational use. This program, known as the GOES-R Proving Ground, is taking place both at National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices and operational centers such as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma. A brand new experimental product, known as the GOES Statistical Hail Prediction Product, was provided to the SPC in May and June 2009 for initial evaluation.

The primary tool for severe thunderstorm warnings for severe (> 0.75" diameter) hail is radar, but prior to the development of large radar reflectivity echoes, forecasters must use other means to diagnose severe weather potential. The GOES Statistical Hail Prediction Product quantitatively combines cloud information from GOES with traditional severe weather prediction analyses, such as CAPE and shear, to produce forecasts of severe hail probability in the 0-6 hour time period. This poster will explain how the product is generated, show some examples, and discuss future improvements with both current GOES and especially GOES-R.