A systematic investigation of the influence of large-scale sea-surface temperature variability on South Asian monsoon precipitation

It has been proposed that the Asian-Australasian monsoon system is influenced by large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the three tropical oceans although how this influence is manifested has remained a largely open question. Closure of this issue is important because it is needed to explain trends in monsoon precipitation and circulation that have occurred in the last 30 years. Using an atmospheric general circulation model, we run a series of experiments with different configurations of global SST relating to various epochs occurring during the last century to evaluate their influence on the monsoon. Comparisons of circulation fields show that a colder SST configuration generates a weaker large-scale monsoonal circulation. On the other hand, warmer SST states generate stronger large scale circulations with more vigorous centers of divergence and convergence. Warmer SST configurations are associated with positive anomalies of precipitation in the Bay of Bengal, Eastern Indian Ocean and South East Asia. Cooler SST configurations are associated with negative anomalies of precipitation in the Arabian Sea and Indian peninsula, especially at the beginning of the summer. Since SST gradients determine, to a large degree, the low level flow, they are also going to influence the transport of atmospheric moisture. Comparison of vertically integrated moisture transport fields between the different experiments show that cold SST configuration favors an increased inter-hemispheric flow of moisture but decreases in the westerly moisture flow in to the Bay of Bengal and India. Warm SST configurations, on the other hand, strengthens westerly flow into the eastern Indian Ocean. An increasing availability of moisture in a region of stronger convergence constitutes a favorable environment for the production of monsoonal precipitation.