Contribution of changes in the leading climate variability modes to long-term trends in the diurnal temperature range during the Northern Hemisphere wintertime and its implication on the detection of regional climate trends
The implication of changes in the leading climate variability modes on the detection of regional DTR trends is discussed. We compare observed DTR trends over the second half of the 20th century with those simulated in response to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings in a suite of six current coupled general circulation models. Control runs from these models are used to provide estimates of the internal variability of trends. We find that the detection of the regional response to combined anthropogenic and natural forcing is robust to the exclusion of trends related to changes of the four modes considered here.