A Graphical Examination of the Relationship between One to Six Day 300mb Hemispheric Forecasts and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Climate Forecast Outlooks

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Tuesday, 19 January 2010: 9:45 AM
B217 (GWCC)
Phil Zuzolo, The Boeing Company, Springfield, VA; and B. Zuzolo

This paper examines the relationship between one to six day 300mb hemispheric forecasts and the CPC climate forecast outlook products. The examination includes a graphical comparison between the 300mb hemispheric flow patterns and the associated CPC climate forecasts. Specifically, the mean flow from 300mb is related to the corresponding CPC above and below normal areas for both temperature and precipitation.

As part of the precipitation and temperature comparisons, the 850mb flow patterns are used along with the 300mb flow to identify the location of the predominant moisture axis and the areas of high and low temperature potential. These comparisons and examinations are used both in the predictive and verification context. The persistence of the 300mb flow pattern is included in these comparisons.

The specific goal of this paper is to examine and assess whether the persistence of the 300mb hemispheric flow patterns provide an indication of the one to three month temperature and precipitation outlooks. Climate forecast outlooks from the CPC are used for comparison to assist with this examination. A summary of findings from the examination and comparisons are included in the paper.