Climatological-based tropical cyclone landfall probabilities and average time to landfall

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Wednesday, 20 January 2010
Exhibit Hall B2 (GWCC)
Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. J. Murnane

Using a 10-minute temporally interpolated global best-track tropical cyclone dataset and a very high resolution global land-sea mask, maps of probability of landfall in various regions & locations are derived. Additionally, the average transit time to landfall is given, with up to 16 day average lead times. These maps are provided on the web, along with current tropical cyclone locations globally overlaid for operational and public use. Several operational forecasting centers have already stated they plan to use the probabilities to "defuse" media claims of threat at long lead times.

The results provide for quick identification of anomalous probability of landfall compared to climatology. The results further provide for identifying key "channels" of tropical cyclone movement that favor landfall. The real-time probabilities of tropical cyclones may provide for advanced noticed of anomalous risk.

The mythical 20N/60W benchmark in the Atlantic basin is confirmed (as a 50% chance for landfall).

Such long-lead climatological landfall probabilities may be considered for verification of decades of explicit seasonal hurricane forecasts by GCMs.

Web URL: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcprob