Climatological-based tropical cyclone landfall probabilities and average time to landfall
The results provide for quick identification of anomalous probability of landfall compared to climatology. The results further provide for identifying key "channels" of tropical cyclone movement that favor landfall. The real-time probabilities of tropical cyclones may provide for advanced noticed of anomalous risk.
The mythical 20N/60W benchmark in the Atlantic basin is confirmed (as a 50% chance for landfall).
Such long-lead climatological landfall probabilities may be considered for verification of decades of explicit seasonal hurricane forecasts by GCMs.
Web URL: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcprob