Developing a regional magnetic activity forecast capability with the Coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere model (CMIT)

The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) is an NSF funded project with the goal of constructing a comprehensive numerical model of the space environment by focusing on coupled modeling of the solar atmosphere, solar wind, the magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. An important aspect of the project is the coupling of the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) model of the magnetosphere with the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) to create the Coupled Magnetosphere Ionosphere Thermosphere model (CMIT).

Efforts are underway to assess the ability of CMIT to forecast ground magnetic disturbance when utilizing real-time measurements of the solar wind from the ACE spacecraft. The eventual aim is to provide operational forecasts which go beyond the global forecasting associated with indexes such as Kp and provide additional regional information. The CMIT model will be described and the new regional magnetic disturbance capabilities discussed. Results of our studies will be compared with the existing global index based techniques for a number of recent active storm periods.