Intelligent Phased Adaptation (IPA) adapting infra-structure design to climate change

Over the past five years growing concern has surfaced on the potential impacts of climate change on both the planning/design of storm water, water supply and eco-systems. Additional concerns have developed over the adaptation of existing infrastructure to climate change. Confusion exists because the basic engineering assumption of “static climatology” used in many early designs and planning has come under attack from the scientific community. Many climatologists have declared that static climatology is “dead”.

The “static climatology” premise was based on the assumption that the range of common climate parameters could be defined successfully by selecting a representative 30-year period of record. The range of natural variability of such common climatological parameters as temperature, precipitation, wind speed/direction and events such as severe weather, drought and floods were included in this assumption. However our knowledge of natural variability of climate parameters has expended significantly since the discussion about man-made or influenced climate changes began in the past decade.

The application of hydro-climate cyclical analyses based on physical cause-effect partitioning, paleo-climatological data bases, simple updating of existing design climate data bases, application of both statistical and dynamic downscaling of GCM output all have a role in an intelligent approach to phased infra-structure design. This approach links the climate change uncertainty in design to the life-cycle of the infra-structure and matches it to the appropriate tool set. This approach advocates using a phased approach to infra-structure investment and upgrade or build as it relates to the body of knowledge used to make design decisions. The approach acknowledges that climate science is changing and it makes phased updates to gather new science to complete a phased design-build-phase approach.

Finally, the ecological and water supply impacts and implications of different climate change scenarios are driving a deeper involvement of private meteorologists into the NEPA/CEQA EIS/EIR forensic environment