Forecasting Southern Plains wind ramp events using the WRF model at 3km

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Sunday, 17 January 2010
Exhibit Hall B2 (GWCC)
Kristen Taylor Bradford, NWC REU, Norman, OK; and R. L. Carpenter Jr. and B. Shaw

Handout (376.6 kB)

Wind ramp events—extreme and rapid changes in wind power output due to abrupt changes in wind speed—are a growing concern for the wind energy industry; therefore, precise forecasting of these phenomena is crucial to the advancement of wind power in the United States. Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., (WDT) is partnering with NanoWeather, Inc., to create a wind forecasting system, called WindPredictorTM, in order to precisely predict winds (and, in turn, ramps) for the energy industry. WDT's contribution to WindPredictor will be a customized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is currently being run on a 3-km grid. This research project assessed the 3-km WRF's performance regarding ramp event prediction. A comparison between surface wind forecasts and hourly METAR observations was utilized to assess its performance.