Statistical tropical cyclone track model for the western North Pacific with genesis dependence on large-scale climate state

Evolution in landfall rates of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) is of major concern to coastal populations and policy makers. We are developing a statistical model of western North Pacific TCs to estimate the sensitivity of East-Asia landfall to large-scale climate state. The model is based on the 1945-2007 International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship track data. TC genesis and lysis locations are determined using kernel probably distribution functions with optimized length-scales. The genesis location and frequency depend on basin-wide SST and ENSO. For TC propagation, we compute local means and variances of 6-hourly displacements using optimized averaging kernels and treat the residuals as autoregressive. We use the model to generate 100s of stochastic realizations of the 1945-2007 period and compare landfall rates to historical rates to assess model performance. The results of landfall sensitivity are shown.