Classification of climatologic, synoptic and mesoscale patterns for tornadoes in the Mid-South (2009): Analysis of upper level jet streaks patterns to determine significant tornadoes development

The mission of the National Weather Service (NWS) Memphis, Tennessee is to provide better information and to protect the life and property in the Mid-South. A study of 27 years of synoptic and mesoscale patterns in the Mid South is useful to enhance that mission. The Memphis County Warning Area (CWA) is a region in the United States that has the highest number of tornado deaths. This area includes parts of Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri. With this information, jet streaks patterns were evaluated for severe weather events, in this case, for significant tornadoes in the Mid -South. Via the use of North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) database, the streamlines for each level in the atmosphere was evaluated. Furthermore, the jet streak direction, shape and quadrants were analyzed. The results of the study show that the jet streak typically comes from the southwest. In addition, the troughs associated with significant tornadoes have a negative tilt. These findings indicate that the tornado has reached maturity. The study shows that tornadoes can typically developed in the right exit of the jet streak. The results from this study should help the forecast at NWS in Memphis to provide better briefings in advance at severe weather events.