10
Verification of Probabilistic Forecasts

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Thursday, 21 January 2010: 11:00 AM-12:15 PM
B305 (GWCC)
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; and the 8th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science )
Cochairs:  Bjarne Hansen, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; Barbara G. Brown, Research Applications Program, NCAR, Boulder, CO and Valliappa Lakshmanan, Rrdd, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Papers:
 
J10.1
The three dimensions of prediction and service

  11:00 AM
J10.1A
A comparison between raw ensemble output, Bayesian model averaging and logistic regression using ECMWF ensemble precipitation reforecasts
Maurice J. Schmeits, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; and C. J. Kok

  11:30 AM
J10.2
Determining Optimal Thresholds for Inland Locations of Tropical Cyclone Incremental Wind Speed Probabilities to Support the Provision of Expressions of Uncertainty within Text Forecast Products
Pablo Santos, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria and D. W. Sharp
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (711.9 kB)

  11:45 AM
J10.3
Verification of aviation turbulence detection, nowcast, and forecast products
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Pocernich, R. D. Sharman, and J. Abernethy
Recorded presentation

  12:00 PM
J10.4
Evaluation of a probabilistic convective nowcast for CoSPA
D. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Williams, S. Dettling, H. Cai, and M. Steiner
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (739.1 kB)

  12:15 PM
J10.5
Choosing a scoring rule for verification of forecast probability distributions: Continuous ranked probability score or ignorance score?
Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA
Recorded presentation

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