William M. Lapenta NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center Camp Springs, MD
Michelle Mainelli NCEP Central Operations Camp Springs, MD
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction is developing significant improvements into NOAA operational forecast systems to increase both the scope and quality of numerical guidance products and the ability of forecasters to visualize, analyze and manipulate environmental data. Ranging from seasonal to interannual prediction and climate reanalysis to hourly rapid updates, NCEP has advanced the quality of its products and is ready to make further improvements through model enhancements and new computing resources. Forecast advances in global and regional atmospheric systems, real-time ocean and waves, hurricanes, air quality and hydrological applications will be described. Modernization of the NCEP production suite is underway with construction of a software framework compatible with the community-based Earth System Modeling Framework and development of ensemble-based post-processing techniques for generation of probabilistic products. Work has begun on advanced data assimilation techniques and preparation for the advanced satellite and radar data is in progress. In addition, NCEP is currently upgrading forecaster workstation capability to AWIPS II and will be relocating to a new facility in College Park, Maryland in 2012. The paper will provide an update on recent and planned upgrades to the production suite, the transition to AWIPS II, and the relocation to the new facility in College Park. This paper describes the status of a number of strategic projects involving the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), including their model suite evolution, forecaster workstation transition to AWIPS II, supercomputer upgrades, and office relocation to College Park, Maryland. The model suite continues to progress, closing much of the gap that existed between NCEP, the ECMWF and the UKMET. The transition to AWIPS II is in its third year, showing much progress despite the many challenges. New supercomputers are coming online in the next year for both research and operations. Finally, the move to the new building is a once-in-a-career challenge that is both exciting and frightening.