92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)

Thursday, 26 January 2012: 11:15 AM
Projections of Climate Change for the North American Monsoon From the NARCCAP Regional Climate Models
Room 350/351 (New Orleans Convention Center )
Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. O. Mearns

This study will provide an overview of climate change projections in the North American Monsoon (NAM) system from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Our goal is to not only examine precipitation changes, but to consider changes in the atmospheric processes that are part of the NAM system that drive precipitation. In doing so, we hope to provide an assessment of the credibility of the precipitation projections from the various RCMs. That is, we hope to identify which changes in precipitation are supported by changes in the most physically realistic driving-process changes, accounting for potential changes in identified process bias from the current to the future. Our focus for this presentation will be on the role of moisture transport in the system and the influences of systematic biases therein.

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