Tuesday, 24 January 2012
Hydrometeorological, Vegetative and Demographic Indices for Drought Analysis and Monitoring in Lake Chad Basin
Hall E (New Orleans Convention Center )
Lake Chad, located in one of the poorest and most drought-prone regions of the world – the Sahel region of sub Saharan Africa - has shrunk from around 25,000 KM2 in the early 1960s to less than 2,000 KM2 today. The complex nature of anthropogenic impact on climate in Lake Chad Basin (LCB) has not been given adequate coverage partly because the Sahel region today may have been receiving just enough precipitation. The lessons from the current drought in Horn of Africa is however a reminder of the potential threat to the over 30 million inhabitants of LCB. The shrinking of the lake can be attributed to a number of drivers to include changes in land use pattern and regional climate change. This research explores the potential and the methodology for early drought detection using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology and remote sensed data. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) obtained from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument were used to examine spatial pattern for a 25 year period spanning from 1981 to 2006. This was matched with high resolution eMODIS 10-day maximum-value composite NDVI images at 250m spatial resolution and compared with the Global Net Primary Production (NPP) Anomaly. Results suggest strong correlation between NDVI and NPP. The CAMS OPI Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis indicates increase in SPI value from 0 in 2002 to around 1.3 in 2010. Analysis of 30 years daily rainfall, temperatures and evapotranspitation data (CRU CL 1.0) of Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia was performed and a 10-day (dekad) mean trend constructed. The variability and trends in dekadal hydrometeorological variables was analyzed using GIS geoprocessing tool to aggregate areas based on specified attributes. From the result, increased temperature and decreased amount of rainfall, soil moisture and evapotranspiration favors drought. Demographic indices such as changes in land use, population changes, and irrigation were then ranked and weighted according to their importance in causing drought. The final map shows different zones of drought vulnerability ranging from low, medium, high and very high under different precipitation scenarios.
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