This abstract relates to work intended to inform the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) efforts to effectively convey tropical cyclone risk, resulting in more resilient behaviors that reduce losses of life and property. It is intended that information gained through this project will be incorporated into the development of NHC products, information and services.

Based on the need to better convey information to improve societal response, NOAA is investigating and undertaking new methods to communicate tropical cyclone risk in an effort to better inform and prepare society to respond to risk related to tropical cyclones, including high winds, storm surge, and flood producing rainfall. Understanding the barriers and benefits audiences perceive and experience for risk-reducing behaviors, can help inform NOAA products, information, and services, including education and outreach efforts. Greater understanding of these variables, through existing or new social science efforts, is critical to identifying ways to improve products, information and services to foster more resilient and sustainable behaviors. Results gleaned from this research can then be used to support improvement of existing products as well as education and outreach, training, and decision-support tool development.

NHC would like to use social science techniques to improve tropical cyclone risk communication, and to understand how to use the suite of products to disseminate risk information to emergency managers, the media, and the public. This includes evaluation of the messages that end users are receiving, and what can be done to improve communication of and understanding of these messages. New and existing NHC graphics and visualization techniques that would communicate tropical cyclone risk and promote appropriate public response, including, but not limited to:

• graphical depiction of forecast (cone of uncertainty) • extension of forecast rack and intensity out to 7 days • tropical cyclone landfall probability • tropical cyclone wind probability • storm surge inundation graphics • storm surge watch/warning

Our presentation will discuss plans for accomplishing the goals set forth above, including methodology for assessing key audience needs. We will conclude with a discussion of tasks we plan to complete during the 2012 hurricane season.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service.