92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)

Monday, 23 January 2012: 4:45 PM
Development of a Climate Informed Decision Analysis
Room 243 (New Orleans Convention Center )
Casey Brown, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, MA; and P. Moody

There is growing concern that water resource systems are vulnerable to climate variability and climate change. The projected impacts of climate change, in particular, have extraordinary implications for most water resource systems. As a result, water resource managers and policy makers seek the best possible sources of climate change projections and information to assist their decision making needs. However, there is no accepted framework for using this uncertain information for long range planning or adaptation. In this presentation, we describe and demonstrate an original framework for incorporating climate information adaptation decision-making in water resource-related systems. Existing approaches to decision making under uncertainty are reviewed and compared, including Bayesian decision analysis, scenario planning and robust decision making. Insights from these approaches are leveraged to develop a process designed specifically for the use of climate change projections for long range planning. The process uses a decision analytic decision framework to characterize relevant information to match it with what is credible in climate projections. Robustness and vulnerability to surprise are explicitly considered within the framework. The resultant decision process and climate risk management approach is advocated for the best use of climate information in adaptation planning. Examples from ongoing work on major water resource systems are presented to illustrate the process.

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