Tuesday, 24 January 2012: 5:15 PM
Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Track Forecasts by the Navy’s Regional Model
Room 338 (New Orleans Convention Center )
Predictions of TC landfall location and timing have a direct impact on evacuation preparation and damage mitigation. With more observations available for data assimilation, advances in model physics, and finer grid spacing, numerical weather prediction models have begun to show some improvement in their capability to predict the track of landfalling TCs. Accurate prediction of the location and timing of TC landfall, however, remains a challenge due to the complicated dynamic and physical processes associated with the abrupt change of environment during landfall. In this study we make an initial evaluation of the performance of the Navy's regional model, the Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System – Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS®-TC), regarding track forecasts of landfalling TCs. Real-time forecasts using COAMPS-TC have been ongoing for 3 TC seasons (2009, 2010, and 2011) over the western North Pacific, eastern North Pacific, and North Atlantic basins. The COAMPS-TC data are examined to determine the characteristics of both successful and unsuccessful landfall forecasts. Detailed results are to be presented at the conference.