Wednesday, 25 January 2012: 5:00 PM
Experimental Hurricane Forecasts During HFIP in 2011
Room 356 (New Orleans Convention Center )
During the 2011 hurricane season, the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) ran for a second year its experimental real-time hurricane forecast system based on computer forecast guidance generated collaboratively by government research offices and academia. This past season the forecasts were run on HFIP's computational facility at NOAA/ESRL in Boulder. This system includes global models and global model ensembles run at high horizontal resolution 15-30km) and a regional multi-model ensemble with a horizontal resolution of 3-4 km Global model forecasts extend out to 7 days and most regional models run out to 5 days. Some of these models are being used in the forecast process at the National Hurricane Center in an experimental real-time framework known as Stream 1.5 (to be defined in the talk).
A sample of results from the 2011 hurricane season will be presented including forecasts of genesis, track and intensity. This experimental modeling capability is designed to test a potential operationally useful guidance capability in a manner compatible with operational requirements, and is a component of NOAA's effort to increase technology transfer from Operations to Research and Research to Operations (O2R/R2O).
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