Tuesday, 24 January 2012: 11:30 AM
Modeling Global Trends in Future Climate and Air Quality (invited)
Room 342 (New Orleans Convention Center )
Future changes in climate are among the largest concerns facing the international community today. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. The two major air pollutants of interest include troposphereic ozone (O3) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM2..5), due to their adverse effects on human health and the potential feedbacks to the climate system. Changes in future climate have been modeled in the past several decades using traditional General Circulation Models (GCM) with no or prescribed gases and aerosols, or contemporary GCMs most with offline-coupled chemical transport models (CTMs) and a few with online-coupled chemistry and aerosols, or comprehensive global climate models (CMs) that consist of an atmospheric GCM, an oceanic GCM, a sea ice model, and a land surface model, or more advances Earth system models (EaSMs) that build upon CMs but include additional component models for biogeochemistry, ecology, land use, and hydrology. This study employs the Global-through-Urban Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (GU-WRF/Chem), to simulate one current year (2001) and five future years (2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050). Despite the use of prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice data, this model can be distinguished from the aforementioned GCMs, CMs, or EaSMs in several aspects including more advanced atmospheric physics and dynamics, more comprehensive atmospheric chemistry and aerosol microphysics; it also contains more accurate representations of many complex interactions and feedbacks between climate and air quality that are not previously treated or crudely parameterized in many GCMs and CMs. The objectives of this study are to better understand the impact of future changes in meteorological forcing and emissions on global air quality and provide policy makers with scientific information for guidance in the creation of future air pollution and climate mitigation strategies. Projected anthropogenic emissions are based on the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B Scenario, and biogenic emissions are calculated online based on changed meteorological parameters. Preliminary analysis shows an increase in global temperature of 0.5-1 °C and global water vapor of 0.2 -0.6 g kg-1 between the current and future years. Precipitation changes on average vary between ± 0.1 mm day-1, with the largest differences associated with the shifts in tropical rain bands. The maximum 8-hr O3 level increases globally by 2-3 ppb as a result of increasing global temperatures and also increased emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds in India, eastern China, and Southeast Asia. The changes in the global PM2.5 level vary between ± 0.6 μg m-3 with differences being more regional in nature, which are associated with regional changes in emissions of sulfur dioxide. The final simulations are being conducted with updated emissions based on the 2005 National Emissions Inventory for the United States and the addition of NOx emissions from lightning, as well as, updated 5-year averaged current meteorological initial conditions. These results will be analyzed in terms of the effects of changing atmospheric stability on the vertical and spatial distributions of air pollutants and the impact of changes in global aerosol concentrations on radiative and cloud feedbacks. The policy implications of these results on future global emission regulations will be discussed.
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