Tuesday, 24 January 2012: 11:30 AM
Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Track During Landfall Using COAMPS-TC
Room 338 (New Orleans Convention Center )
The recently developed Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System – Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS®-TC) has been applied in real time motivated by three recent multi-agency programs: i) THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and the ONR Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 (TCS08) experiments, which took place in 2008 in the W. Pacific, ii) Interaction of Typhoon and Ocean Project (ITOP), which took place in 2010 in the W. Pacific, and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which focused on the W. Atlantic and E. Pacific basins. The real time COAMPS-TC system was configured with three nested grids with 45, 15, 5 km horizontal resolution, with the inner two most meshes moving with the tropical cyclone center. Statistical verification indicates that the COAMPS-TC system provided superior tropical cyclone intensity forecast skill relative to other dynamical models in the W. Atlantic basin during the 2010 season. Evaluation of COAMPS-TC will be presented using the TCS08, ITOP, and HFIP datasets with a focus on examples of challenges and successes for landfalling storms. Additionally, the recently developed adjoint and tangent linear models for the COAMPS-TC will be used to quantify the sensitivity of tropical cyclone track and intensity to the initial state for landfalling cyclones.