Sunday, 22 January 2012
Forecast Validation of Three Sierra Nevada Precipitation Events
Hall E (New Orleans Convention Center )
ABSTRACT In this paper, three precipitation events which occurred in the Sierra Nevada Mountains are investigated. These three events are all associated with atmospheric rivers, from which the resulting precipitation can be quite heavy. The 24-, 48-, and 72-h NAM model forecasts of temperature, dewpoint, and 24-h accumulated precipitation are analyzed at four Sierra Nevada stations. Temperature and dewpoint errors from the model output show a tendency to overestimate the temperature and underestimate the dewpoint during these three events. For one event, the precipitation was strongly underestimated (by about half). The other two events show no specific trend in either time or space.