The Madeira atmosphere and ocean forecasting systems

The Madeira Archipelago atmospheric forecasting system is operational since 2007 at http://wakes.uma.pt. The PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (known as MM5), downscaled from the Global Forecast System (GFS) is being used with limited computational resources, to generate 72-hour predictions, daily. An independent ocean circulation forecasting system based on downscaling Atlantic solutions from MERCATOR onto the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), is been operational since 2011. Both systems are now fully automatic and have been used to support oceanographic missions, aircraft campaigns, as well as open for public use. The systems have been able to predict daily phenomena as well as extreme weather events, with very little downtime. Recently, an automatic three-dimensional visualization tool was also implemented. In spite the stable performance, recent studies suggest a strong interdependence of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, and efforts in collaboration with NRL scientists led to the development of a coupled numerical system for the region using COAMPS. The unique aspects of the island orography, the implications of the local atmospheric phenomena in the generation of localized oceanic dynamics, and the positive feedback onto the atmosphere are some of the topics that make Madeira a challenging case study to test any atmosphere-ocean coupled system.