Thursday, 10 January 2013: 11:15 AM
Room 9C (Austin Convention Center)
In a series of experiments we issue forecasts of fine aerosol concentration over the coterminous USA and southern Canada using the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry model initialized with 3D-VAR or ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) assimilation methods. Assimilated observations include surface measurements of fine aerosols from United States Environmental Protection Agency AIRNow Data Exchange program. Evaluation statistics calculated over a month-and-half-long summer period demonstrate the advantage of EnKF over 3D-VAR and point to the limitations of applying a simple aerosol parameterization for predicting air quality over the forecast area. Strategies for further improvement of forecasting aerosol concentrations are discussed.
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