National Weather Service Phoenix, AZ Decision Support for the Sunflower Wildfire Burn Area

In May 2012, the Sunflower wildfire burned over 17,400 acres in the Sycamore Creek drainage basin of Maricopa County, Arizona. Significant portions of the area severely burned. The community of Sunflower is immediately downstream of the burn area, with recreation areas and travel corridors populating the Sycamore Creek basin. The staff at the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Phoenix, AZ quickly recognized the significant flash flood potential and the need to provide quality decision support services for partner agencies and the public in the area.

When developing its decision support plan, WFO Phoenix combined the best practices of neighboring WFOs with unique capabilities both on-station and in local partner agencies. WFO Phoenix's decision support activities fell into three primary topics: internal forecaster training and operations, coordination with key partner agencies, and public outreach activities.

Internally, WFO Phoenix held a staff seminar with presentations from the Senior Service Hydrologist, Fire Weather Program Manager, and the Flood Control District of Maricopa County. The Hydrologist manually adjusted the flash flood guidance values in the WFO's Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction system based on analysis of past floods on burn areas. The Fire Weather Program Manager developed a Google Earth resource showing the burn area, the Sunflower community, nearby housing additions, and significant landmarks. These staff members co-produced a resource manual and a set of guidelines and templates regarding warning decisions, content, and follow-up contacts. They developed special flash flood warning templates with wording specific to the Sycamore Creek area.

Externally, WFO Phoenix staff participated in weekly agency response meetings with the U.S. Forest Service, Arizona and Maricopa County Emergency Management, local/state law enforcement, and Arizona Departments of Public Safety and Transportation. Staff members attended and made presentations at a public preparedness meeting in Sunflower regarding hazard awareness and receipt of information. The Hydrologist and Fire Weather Program Manager provided input to the Flood Control District on the placement of rain and stream gauges in the Sycamore Creek basin. The WFO Phoenix webmaster developed a Sunflower decision support website containing watch/warning information, radar imagery, rainfall/stream data from all sensors in the area, and public preparedness and safety information.

These actions established a baseline level of decision support services for key partners and members of the public in the Sycamore Creek Basin. This program is a continually evolving process, however, as knowledge is gained regarding the response characteristics of the basin. While these activities will not stop flash flooding from affecting the basin, the WFO Phoenix staff feels that key partners and customers in harm's way are as prepared as possible for the impacts.